Pre-market indices keep September down
Friday, September 17, 2021
It looks like we are seeing a week of decline in the markets, with futures trading in the red again before the opening bell. We wouldn’t call this something like a massive sell-off, however – it’s more of a price reservation / appraisal nibble of fear at the edges of the market. The Dow is currently -45 points, the Nasdaq is -10 and the S&P 500 is -5 points. We entered September at or near record levels; September has taken care of it for now.
In all fairness, this is a tough time to gauge market sentiment as we are in between earnings seasons (the most recent providing the best year-over-year comparisons in recent memory, which shouldn’t be. continue) and still without an infrastructure bill on the way to go through Congress. So, it’s sort of a pattern of waiting until we at least have the rumor of some solid results coming up, and we’re just not there yet.
We’ve had a good week of economic impressions, many of which – Empire State, Philly Fed, Imports, and Retail Sales – easily exceeded expectations. The fact that they didn’t really rock the markets much tells us that much of this good news had already been incorporated weeks ago, back when we were hitting new closing highs seemingly every day. days.
After the opening bell today we receive our Consumer sentiment at the University of Michigan investigation. Analysts expect a slight rebound in September, after an August stock that was the worst on this index in more than a decade. Today we’re looking for a reading of 72.0, down from 70.3 the month before. However, those numbers are pale compared to the more than 80 numbers we saw from March through July of this year.
Last month, the expectations gauge slumped quite a bit – from 79.0 to 65.1 – amid fears that the Delta variant would hurt the U.S. economy, that inflation might persist longer than the Fed hadn’t expected it and that wage growth is slowing down somewhat. Hopefully we can bounce back stronger than the current analyst consensus – that would be in line with better-than-expected results we’ve seen in other economic metrics reported this week.
Next week, still weeks away from the heavy flow of third-quarter earnings reports, we will receive massive data on the housing market, from housing starts and building permits to existing and new home sales, all of it. for the month of August. The next meeting of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins Tuesday, with remarks by Fed Chairman Jay Powell on Wednesday afternoon. Will he finally establish a timetable for reducing asset buybacks, depending on the strengthening of the economy?
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