Bartender, a tall glass of Simon Rosenberg with a shot of Tom Bonier, please. . .
. . . with maybe a bit of Michael Moore, but not much, because of a lingering bitter aftertaste of 2000.
In a story here last Friday, I recommended my pre-election “self-care” agenda:
Five steps to surviving the next four days: Step 1: MSNBC is not your friend. Turn it off. . . Stage 2 was “Pretend You’re Michael Moore”, Stage 3 was GOTV, Stage 4 was “Watch Time travelling machine” or whatever gender, and step 5 was repeat 1-4, specifically GOTV.
My TV moratorium even extended to comedy, including even my must-have trio of Noah, Colbert and Seth Myers – For the past two weeks, I had no sense of humor other than the Time travelling machine — Craig Robinson and Jessica Paré in the Tub variety. (OK – not just humor for the latter).
But I forgot one more step I took – “Follow Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier on Twitter.” These guys were the light at the end of the tunnel, the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, the calm before, during and after the storm. While Moore’s optimism was mostly his intuition, Rosenberg and Bonier were based on data, and now validated by the result:
I would also add Kos and Kerry’s The Brief, who had Rosenberg and other fact-based optimists, and continually emphasized that perspective, refuting the MSM crap. And also The Palmer Report and Tomi Ahonen.
Simon and Tom and Kerry and Kos were only cautiously optimistic, but my expectations for the election exceeded theirs and turned out to be too highbecause of this crude calculation:
1. The generic ballot was about even on Election Day (especially after correcting for fake late R polls). The same was true for the major Senate races.
2. To win the House, the Ds needed about 3-4 points above the generic poll.
3. Over the summer in Kansas and NY-19, the Democrats (and Choice) position topped the polls by about 10%.
4. Consider Bonier’s work on increasing youth and female enrollment.
4. Due to the passage of time and the onslaught of R-crime/inflationary hysteria advertisements, plus aiding and abetting MSM, reduce the summer 10 points to five points.*
5. Late in the game, consider high D tendency EV totals and percentages.
Presto – The D’s retain the House and gain 2 more seats in the Senate.
So for me, anything less than holding the House and increasing the Senate would be disappointing. I realize now that it was setting me up for a fall, but I needed it to move forward with my GOTV, with nothing dark. This is the compromise on this quadrant:
My choice was to be happier before the election, while risking being disappointed in the event of a bad result. And Rosenberg/Bonier/Kos/Kerry gave me the basis for that. At least you are happy within a period of time. If you’re pessimistic and there’s a bad outcome, you’re miserable before, after, and during. My problem was to define and accept a good result.
But after four days, I finally agree that it’s a good result, thanks not only to Simon, Tom, Kos and Kerry, but to my revised expectations.
And the youth vote, although it may not be as important as expected, did make a difference in tight races and continues to have the potential to gradually turn everything upside down, so support:
Finally, in case you missed it:
*I think I should have narrowed this down more. Among other things, I overestimated the ability of Dems to overcome the New York State Gerrymandering generated by Andrew Cuomo.